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RT&A_SI 2022, # 3(66) Vol.17

 

 

 

This special issue of the journal “Reliability: Theory and Applications” contains quality articles on innovative approaches to risk minimization. We would like to express our gratitude to all the participants of the RISK-2021 Conference for the submitted articles and the reviewers for their effective work in evaluating the submitted materials. We sincerely appreciate their excellent timely responses. The invited editors are also very grateful to the secretary, Doctor of Sci., Alexander Bochkov, for his constant support and constructiveness in the process of reviewing and drafting the proposal of the special issue. We hope that this special issue will make a significant contribution to improving the scientific field of assessment, analysis and management of natural and man-made risks.

 

 

 


Academician Nikolai Makhutov,

Head of the Working Group “Industrial Safety” under the President

of Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Federation,

e-mail: kei51@mail.ru

 


Prof. Dr. Vugar Aliyev,
CEO & Founder
International Event Organizer Company
AMIR Technical Services LLC,

e-mail: prof.vugar.aliyev@gmail.com

 

 


  

THE FINAL DECISION THIRD EURASIAN CONFERENCE AND SYNPOSIUM RISK-2021

Nikolai Makhutov, Vugar Aliyev

 


 

ON THE CONCEPTS MEANING, THEIR MEASUREMENTS AND USE IN PRACTICE OF RISK ASSESSMENT

Boyan Dimitrov

 

In this talk we discuss the basic concepts used in axioms of sciences, their meaning explained through the axioms and measurement that follow afterwards. There are situations where meaning comes first, then axioms then measure. And there are situations where measurements come first and meanings – later. Things may look elementary, but they are supposed to build a solid background when make a system to analyze the risk. We illustrate this approach on examples from classic sciences as geometry and algebra, from examples of recent times as for uncertainty and probability and focus our attention on the concept of risk ant its measurements.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-15-37

 


 

ON PRINCIPLES OF RISK ANALYSIS WITH A PRACTICAL EXAMPLE

Vladimir Rykov, Nika Ivanova, Mais Farhadov

 

As a scientific term "risk'' originally appeared in insurance mathematics and meant the "ruin probability'' in a "collective risk'' model of an insurance company. Recently, this term has become widespread in different spheres of human activity and has been applied to various models of "individual risk". At the same time, despite its increasing popularity, its strict definition still does not exist, and various sources interpret it differently. The report discusses various interpretations of this notion and it reasons. The authors adhere to the concept of risk as a random phenomenon and from this point of view, consider its characteristics and their measuring methods. The risk tree is used for the probabilistic space of the risk phenomenon construction. In the talk, the proposed approach will be demonstrated with the help of one real-world example.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-38-41

 


 

APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN RUSSIA’S RAILWAY NETWORK ASSET MANAGEMENT

Igor Shubinsky, Alexei Zamyshlaev, Alexander Bochkov

 

The article presents general information on the system and methodology of asset management and Big Data methods (EKP URRAN) used on Russia’s railway network. The relevance of the publication is defined by the requirement of rational management of available resources amidst the stagnation of the global economy. That applies fully to the railway industry, where it is required to ensure an acceptable level of dependability of facilities and processes, while maintaining the traffic safety risks at an acceptable level. The architecture of EKP URRAN is presented. The system’s future outlooks are examined, most importantly in terms of application of artificial intelligence in predicting hazardous events in the operation of railway transportation.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-42-48

 


 

FAILURE AND ACCIDENT RISKS OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS IN SIBERIA AND THE ARCTIC

Nikolai Makhutov, Vladimir Moskvichev, Ulyana Postnikova

 

In the paper is presented the complex analysis of object technosphere safety is particular of current interest for Siberian and Artic of the Russian Federation where a wide range of hazards are. The uniqueness of territory (various natural-climatic and geological conditions, huge actual reserves at biogenic and mineral resources, significant industrial protentional with complex transport infrastructure etc.) causes a large number of hazards. There are some examples of analyses of results technical diagnostic for technosphere objects including fabricated constructions, mainland pipeline, etc. and their using for estimating the reliability and accidents risks as well.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-49-58

 


 

A NEW METHOD OF OCCUPATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT, BASED ON UNCERTAINTY

Alexander Fedorets

 

This article aims to present a brand-new method of quantitative risk assessment (OHSI method), in line with a modern concept of risk based on uncertainty. The OHSI method has been designed to determine the possibility of dangerous event occurrence through an assessment of the effectiveness of enabled risk controls. The IBT method has abandoned completely the use of the notion of "probability" in risk management context in favor of "likelihood", which enables a quantitative assessment of the magnitude of risk without involving historical data on event rate.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-59-64

 


 

THE PECULIARITIES OF EROSION AND SOIL PROCESSES IN LOWER KURA RIVER AND THE RISK OF FLOODS

Vugar Aliyev, Zakir Ramazanly, Sabina Magerramova, Emil Gafarov

 

The section of the Kura River from the downstream of the Mingechevir dam to the Caspian Sea is called the Lower Kura. The Kura River flows on an alluvial layer, created by him over the millennia. The water course has turbulent character, with transverse circulation. The dynamic axis of water flow wanders. Water has character of a disperse liquid. In turbulent flow the disperse liquid behaves as an emery paper. It considerably accelerates process of erosion of coastal dams. According to our field investigations and theoretical estimations, in some years of a high-water annual displacement of meanders reaches 9 ÷10m. Case studies have shown that the displacement of the meander on the Kura River passing through the villages of Ashagy Surra, Yukhary Garaimanly and Kurgarabujag in the Neftchala region was 450 m over 50 years (1967-2017). The region is densely populated and has a dense infrastructure. The horizontal displacement of the meander leads to the destruction of coastal structures and creates the risk of flooding. The economic damage caused by the flooding in 2010 was over US $ 500 million.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-65-70

 


 

INFLUENCE OF NATURAL-ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS ON THE FORMATION OF PINE FORESTS OF LANDSCAPES OF THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC

Idris Bayrakov

 

The analysis of the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on the formation of the biomass of oak forests in the Chechen Republic allowed us to assess the current state of these geobiocenoses. The territories of oak forests the various anthropogenic disturbances show a clear connection with certain physical and geographical conditions of mountain and forest landscapes that affect the rate of organic recovery. Here, the geomorphological factor in the placement of certain directions of mountain ranges and the steepness of the slopes comes to the fore. In the northern slopes, where they receive more solar heat and drop out, a significant amount of moisture, the growth of phytomass goes much faster than on the southern slopes of the rain shadow.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-71-75

 


 

PROSPECTS FOR USING THERMAL WATER IN KALBAJAR DISTRICT AND OTHER REGIONS (AZERBAIJAN) AS AN ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

Islam Tagiyev, Mehriban Ismailova, Vagif Karimov, Jafar Sharifov

 

One of the essential problems of the present time in the field of natural sciences is saving energy resources and substitution of hydrocarbon energy with solar, wind, and geothermical types of energy. The Republic of Azerbaijan is rich with renewable sources including thermal water deposits being situated in a number of regions of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus, Apsheron peninsula, Talysh, as well as in the bounds of the Kura and Pre-Caspian-Guba depression. The article is based on the analysis of published materials, data from geological prospecting and scientific research work carried out in different time, as well as results of geochemical analyses of water sample. This article discusses issues about utilizing thermal water as an alternative energy. As alternative energy, thermal water of Kalbajar district has been investigated insufficiently for obvious reasons. Nowadays, not deep and low debit wells having bored in due course for balneological goals do not permit to consider thermal water in Kalbajar district as noteworthy sourses of alternative energy.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-76-81

 


 

THE INFLUENCE OF COMBINED DRAINAGE ON THE STABILITY OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN CONDITION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Ivan Šimunić, Tanja Likso, Palma Orlović-Leko, Irena Ciglenečki,

Marina Bubalo Kovačić, Gordon Gilja, Ivan Mustać

 

Climate change and consequent appearance of natural hazards (floods, droughts, soil erosion, landslides) is major problem globally, and a subject of many scientific, expert and politics meetings and therefore solutions are being sought to mitigate its consequences. Because of climate change, agricultural production is very uncertain during unfavourable hydrological years, in which vegetation deficit or surplus precipitation appears, causing deficit or surplus moisture in rootzone with negative impact on growing and development of plants. To achieve safe agricultural production, hydrotechnical structures are often utilized: flood protection systems, ameliorative drainage systems, as well as irrigation systems. If hydro-ameliorative systems already exist, they often require reconstruction (adaptation) in addition to maintenance.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-82-87

 


 

TECHNOLOGICAL SAFETY OF THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

Amina Alieva, Larisa Katsieva

 

The current trend continues in almost all areas of oil and gas production. The reason is trivial: the lack of interest among the users of natural resources themselves and, as a consequence, the lack of sufficient material resources necessary for the restoration of resource-developed territories. At the present stage, this problem is becoming more and more acute for companies, but the main reason is not in the consciousness of enterprises, but in the tightening of requirements at the legislative level and the deterioration of the profitability of the extracted raw materials. That is, environmental problems continue to grow, but it becomes more and more difficult to regulate them due to their colossal neglect [3]. A decrease in the profitability of deposits, wear and tear of technological equipment and assets lead to a deterioration in the quality of raw materials and a decrease in the efficiency of the work performed, which, together with social problems, only entails an aggravation of the ecological situation. These aspects have a significant impact on the productivity of companies in general - especially in the environmental sense - that are undercapitalized.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-88-92

 


 

SCORE PETROCHEMICAL POLLUTION TERRITORY COMPLEX OF THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC

Malika Kitieva, Idris Bayrakov

 

In the article the results of research of the ecological status of water bodies of the Chechen Republic podvergshie petrochemical pollution of long-period. In this period as a whole in the water bodies of the Chechen Republic is folded the tense ecological situation caused by natural pollution Wednesday, and especially petroleum, biogenic organic and other substances. One of the main sources of water pollution in the basin of the Terek are surface watercourses in the Chechen Republic, pollution made with objects extraction, refining and transportation of oil, sludge, many of which have been destroyed or subjected to destruction presently. Map of petrochemical pollution scheme, is a table of content of petroleum hydrocarbons in soil samples collected in rivers Terek and Sunzha rivers, Neftjanka. Which shows that water resources are in a State of medium and high degree of pollution and in urgent need of organizing activities to optimize their management. The data obtained suggest that there is a gradual decrease in sediment contamination r. Terek and Sunzha r. oil hydrocarbons. The results of the last 5 years show that the largest number of well falls on 2012 year-more than 567 mg/kg.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-93-97

 


 

METHODS FOR MEETING REQUIREMENTS IN THE FIELD OF ENGINEERING PRODUCTS SAFETY

Yaroslav Vavilin

 

The article is devoted to the issues of compliance with the requirements in the field of engineering products safety. In particular, the technical regulations "On the safety of machinery and equipment". The purpose of the work is to develop a management system to ensure the production of safe products. The author proposes a product safety management system. The system is based on the principle of a process approach. The system can be used independently or as a part of an integrated management system. The author proposes a method for evaluating the level of improvement of the organization's processes, including those related to safety.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-98-106

 


 

PORT TRANSPORTATION CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SAFETY AND OPERATION COST JOINT OPTIMIZATION

Krzysztof Kołowrocki, Beata Magryta-Mut

 

To analyze jointly the system safety and its operation cost optimization, we propose the procedure of determining the optimal values of limit transient probabilities of the system operation process at the particular operation states that allows to find maximal system safety indicators, through applying the system safety model and linear programing. Next, to find the system conditional operation total cost during the fixed operation time, corresponding to this system maximal safety indicators, we replace the limit transient probabilities, existing in the formula for the system operation total cost during the fixed operation time, by their optimal values existing in the formulae for the coordinates of the system safety function after maximization. The proposed procedure is applied to the port oil terminal critical infrastructure and to fulfill in practice the obtained terminal optimal safety and operation cost results, the modification of its operation process is proposed.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-107-112

 


 

GROUNDWATER OF GANIKH-AYRICHAY FOOTHILLS ON THE PROSPECTS OF USE  

Mehriban Ismailova, Fuad Maharramov, Vagif Karimov, Jafar Sharifov

 

At last years, the demand for drinking and irrigation water increased sharply of our republic. The main water resources Kura and Araz rivers before get to our country, they were polluted with various chemical elements and compounds, organic substances, and the water level of the rivers decreased by 30%. The geological and hydrogeological conditions of the area have been thoroughly studied in order to select a sustainable water source in order to improve the drinking water supply of Baku and the Absheron Peninsula, as well as the city of Balakan. The object of study is the Ganikh-Ayrichay (Alazan) foothill plain, located on the southern slopes of the Main Caucasus Range, 210 km long and up to 30 km wide in Azerbaijan. Geophysical electrical exploration (GEZ) was conducted in the area with the ERA-MAX device and interpreted with the help of special computer programs. It was determined that the total mineralization rate (GMP) of plain ground and pressurized waters does not exceed 0.5-0.7g/l. These waters are mainly hydrocarbonate and mixed cations.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-113-118

 


 

GEOECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE SOIL COVER OF THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC  

Idris Bayrakov

 

Scientific and practical problems facing the "society-nature" system that have developed a new direction in the system of geographical sciences - landscape ecology, which deals with just the problems or rather the consequences of irrational nature management. From these positions, the relevance of the research topic seems relevant and in demand, primarily by the practice of combating desertification processes in the Chechen Republic. The purpose of the study is to study the influence of anthropogenic factors on landscapes and the patterns of their changes depending on the stages of development of degradation processes. Research objectives: to conduct studies of anthropogenic changes in landscape complexes under the influence of desertification processes; to identify natural indicators of the desertification process; to establish regional features of landscape transformation in the semi-desert zone; to develop measures to optimize the natural environment of the semi-desert zone.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-119-123

 


 

LANDSCAPE ANALYSIS OF EXOGENIC PROCESSES DISTRIBUTION IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC  

Alexey Gunya, Rustam Gakaev

 

The landscape structure is an important basis for analyzing the distribution of exogenous processes. Six types, 11 subtypes and 45 groups of landscapes were identified, for which an analysis was carried out of the occurrence and intensity of distribution of the main exogenous processes in the mountainous territories of the Chechen Republic such as: avalanches, mudflows, landslides, erosion, karst.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-124-128

 


 

COVID-19: HUMAN CRISIS AND CHALLENGE  

David Gurgenidze

 

Today, humanity faces the millennium challenge. Those challenges always require the development of new agenda and solutions. The same time, different states and society are making the certain programs. States usually undertake to develop problem-solving plans, as well as to lead the implementation of the effective measures. While the states often consider each other as partners, sometimes the contradictions between them raise. It depends on various political and economic factors. Currently, the case is different. The whole world, and not any certain regime, whether democratic or totalitarian/authoritarian, has to solve a common problem. There was a strangeness at the beginning of the pandemic that neither the whole world was together nor separately. Everyone seemed to be withdrawn into oneself and was trying to solve ‘their’ problem themselves. There was and, you could say, it is now an alienation between the nations. The solution of the problem needs the understanding and vision, determination of the perspectives. The strangeness continues with the fact that nowadays neither the definition nor the real plan is fully given. And it’s about the human lives. Since this threat is all-encompassing, the strangeness of this crisis is in the fact that, as it was already said, the world does not still hold together. And this danger/crisis is named after COVID-19. The paradox chain continues today we, the humanity, do not know when will this crisis end. We also do not know how it will end; in the ling-term perspective, we also do not know with what and which political and economic results will it end. What and which is very important because it wouldn’t be a little hard, and it is necessary to define what will it look like, since we will proceed from this ‘what’ in the long-term operational and decisional perspective.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-129-132

 


 

THE ROLE OF STUDYING TECTONIC FACTORS IN REDUCING THE RISKS OF EXPLORATION  

Khuraman Mukhtarova

 

A comprehensive study of geophysical, geological, tectonic, lithofacies, petrophysical and a number of other factors of oil and gas content and their changes in space over time make it possible to develop the foundations of the main criteria for predicting the distribution of oil and gas territories and the development of hydrocarbon deposits. In order to assess the prospects for prospecting for oil and gas accumulations and reduce the risks of ineffectiveness of exploration and further development and drilling operations in the lower section of the Productive Strata (PS) of the western side of the South Caspian Basin (SKV), based on the available material and taking into account the large number of published works, We considered the tectonic criteria and conditions for the preservation of the formed accumulations of hydrocarbons in the South Absheron archipelago, in the example of the Gum-Deniz and Bahar areas. By specifying the development of uplifts, tectonic faults and the lithofacies composition of more ancient sediments, paleostructural analysis can provide significant assistance in identifying promising areas for prospecting and exploration, and ultimately thereby significantly reduce the risks of inefficiency in drilling operations.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-133-137

 


 

RISK AND INDUSTRIAL SAFETY  

Nikolai Makhutov, Vladimir Nadein , Mikhail Gadenin, Dmitry Reznikov

 

Developments in science, technologies, complexity of industrial infrastructure facilities sustaining life necessary systems are associated with an increased dangers of their functioning at all stages of the life cycle. These dangers are characterized by man-made risks that determine the likelihood of hazardous processes and damage from them. Industry-related risks together with natural and anthropogenic risks are integral risks. The tasks of ensuring safety are coming down to the achievement through calculations and experiments of an acceptable level of risks with the necessary estimated economic costs. Approbation of the described approach is carried out on the example of nuclear power plants.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-138-143

 


 

ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY IN COMPLEX CONSTRUCTION ON THE TERRITORY WITH DISTURBED EXOGENOUS PROCESSES  

Vakha Khadisov, Ayna Vagapova

 

Environmental support of construction projects considers and solves environmental problems from the development of a concept for construction, preparation of a pre-design documentation in the pre-investment period, preparation of data for design, development of project documentation, etc. and until the destruction of the existing building after the expired period of its operation. Thus, environmental support is carried out throughout the entire life cycle of the functioning of buildings or structures. Environmental support for construction projects implies a set of works on instrumental measurements of parameters, performing calculations, developing environmental protection measures in order to ensure and create environmentally friendly solutions.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-144-147

 


 

RESULTS COMPARISON OF ANALYTICAL AND SIMULATION MODELLING OF OIL SPILL DOMAIN MOVEMENT AT PORT WATER AREA  

Ewa Dąbrowska

 

A theoretical background of process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions impact on oil spill trajectory is presented. Probabilistic procedures, analytical and simulation, to oil spill domain movement modelling are proposed considering the impact of hydro-meteorological conditions. The procedures are practically applied to prediction of oil spill domain movement at Karlskrona seaport water area. The discussion and comparison of results are also presented.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-148-157

 


 

MULTIVARİATE CHARTS OF STATISTICAL CONTROL OF THE DYNAMIC PROCESS OF OIL FIELD DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT  

Oleg Dyshin, Fuad Maharramov

 

The properties of the procedure for constructing multidimensional Hotelling maps are investigated for the case of individual observations of a dynamic process. The features of the behavior of such maps are noted in comparison with multivariate statistical control of controllability and stability, using sample observations at a certain fixed point in time or in a short period of time. At the same time, detrending of non-stationary time series, describing the dynamics of each feature separately, as well as the transformation of the multidimensional sample distribution of observations to a joint multivariate normal distribution is used.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-158-163

 


 

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN REGIONAL CONSTRUCTION  

Kheda Murtazova, Vakha Khadisov

 

Construction is one of the most capital-intensive and organizationally complex sectors of the economy. This leads to a high degree of risk for all participants in the construction services market, who may face not only objectively determined risks associated with the complexity and duration of the production cycle, but also with the dishonesty of contractors and potential partners. in operation are varied and are usually measured in significant amounts. In addition, recently from the side of financial institutions and banks to ensure the protection of the financial resources they provide, requirements have been put forward for compulsory insurance of construction risks, which requires building a system of relationships that takes into account the interests of all participants in the construction process.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-164-167

 


 

FAST METHODOLOGY (WARNING TOOLS) FOR TRACKING CHANGES OF THE AQUATIC ORGANIC MATERIAL  

Palma Orlović-Leko, Niki Simonović, Ivan Šimunić, Irena Ciglenečki

 

Increasing dissolved organic matter (DOC) in aquatic ecosystems can lead to disturb the balance, deterioration of the water quality, and a more expensive water purification process. As a significant part of the aquatic DOC, organic adsorbing compunds (OACs, amphiphilic/hidrophobic type), can impact on the both abiotic and biotic elements. In this study it was demonstrated that the noexpensive methodology can be used for the fast monitoring/evaluating water quality with respect to the content and the surface activity (i.e. hydrophobicity) of the DOC. This includes measurement of the total adsorption efect of OACs at the mercury electrode by electrochemical methods. The concept has been applied to rivers from the agricultural district (Sava and Lonja), and from the highly protected area (Krka as a part of National Park) as well as to the marine lake ecosystem (Rogoznica Lake).

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-168-171

 


 

RESISTANCE OF GEOSYSTEMS OF THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC TO EXTERNAL INFLUENCES  

Malika Kitieva, Idris Bayrakov

 

Analysis of the current state of landscapes allowed to zoning the landscapes of the republic by the degree of anthropogenic disturb. Territories with various anthropogenic disturbs reveal a clear connection with certain types of mountain landscapes. Within the high-altitude and middle-class tiers of landscapes, the pattern of man-made disturb belongs to the striped class and is formed within the high-altitude landscape zones. In the northern (low-) part of the republic, due to the unevenness of the man-made load, it acquires a mosaic pattern. Here, it is not the high-altitude, but the geomorphological factor in the placement of certain types of environmental management. The time of residential areas to the bottoms of river valleys is very rigidly manifested.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-172-177

 


 

THE ROLE OF FORECASTING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING ISSUES AT ENTERPRISES OF THE MINERALS SECTOR IN THE CONTEXT OF NEW CHALLENGES AND THREATS  

Evgeny Tseytlin

 

The paper outlines the principal threats and challenges that are facing the minerals sector of Russia and the world, including the EU carbon tax, ban on imports of certain products in different countries of the world (for instance, on asbestos-containing products and high-sulphur and high-ash coals), shortage of land in mining countries, and/or changes in land planning regulations. These threats and challenges are considered in their relationship with environmental safety issues at mines and in mining areas. Related environmental engineering tasks are examined. The role of forecasting in the accomplishment of these tasks and in environmental risk reduction is highlighted. The author proposes a systemic eco-technological approach to effective comprehensive forecasting of mining area’s environment quality.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-178-185

 


 

OİL AND GAS PERSPECTIVES OF THE UMID STRUCTURE IN CONNECTION WITH ITS HISTORY OF GEOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT

Gultar Nasibova

 

It is known that the preservation of the planet's ecosystem is one of the most important issues in geology and in all spheres of industry. The minimum number of wells drilled during geological exploration plays an important role in eliminating damage to nature. The study of paleogeographic, paleotectonic conditions and lithofacies composition of the stratigraphic section of the studied structure is very important for determining the exact number and location of wells that will be drilled for exploration and production in the future. It is these studies that significantly reduce the risk of drilling unpromising wells.The paleogeographic curve and the depositional rate chart have been analyzed. The Umid structure started its development no later than in Pliocene. Both the paleogeographic and the paleotectonic environments within the area were favorable for the necessary amount of organic matter to be accumulated and preserved. Development of the Umid structure intensely continued in later stages.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-186-192

 


 

CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN LANDSCAPES OF THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC  

Rustam Gakaev

 

The global problem is to achieve the set goals for reducing emissions, it is necessary to invest in the development of new ways to reduce carbon emissions in the atmosphere by accelerating convergence in key areas. Looming climate tipping points require public and private participation in scaling up climate responses by creating opportunities for rapid progress that improve human conditions through the provision of ecosystem services and socio-economic development. Efforts to mitigate climate change are based on two imperatives: decarbonizing our energy production systems and removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. As described below, Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) represent a promising path to restoring climate stability by reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions while maintaining and improving critical production systems and ecosystem services.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-193-196

 


 

REDUCING RISKS THROUGH IMPROVEMENT OF PREDICTION MODELS  

Zurab Gasitashvili, Merab Pkhovelishvili, Natela Archvadze

 

Management or avoidance of risks or mitigation of undesirable outcomes are linked to specific actions, as well as to prediction models. These prediction models should be improved to obtain ‚better‛ predictions and thus, manage risks, and take measures for their reduction. We consider such algorithm of event prediction, which, using parallel data, can obtain prediction with high reliability that, in its turn, helps to reduce risks or completely avoid them.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-197-202

 


 

MANAGEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC RISKS IN THE SYSTEM OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT  

Ismail Shahgiraev, Rashiya Bekmurzaeva, Luiza Dzhandarova

 

Today, the words ‚sustainable‛ and ‚development‛ are often used when choosing a concept for promotion, growth or a description of a government strategy. The popularity of the term "sustainable development" came when a close relationship was established with such a direction as the "green economy". Green Economy is an area initiated by the United Nations (UN). In 2008, the UN came up with a proposal for a Green Economy, which was backed up by global research. The initiative was supported at the country level, as investments in the environment went in the context of sustainable development. Thanks to this initiative, the green economy, in conjunction with the eradication of poverty, has been included in the 2012 Rio + 20 agenda and recognized as a tool for contributing to the functioning of the vision for sustainable development. The UN developed an exhaustive definition of the "green economy", which included a story about both improving human well-being and increasing social justice, at the same time talking about reducing environmental risks and reducing environmental deficits. The last decades have raised the importance of the green economy concept to a scale comparable to the strategic priorities of many countries and intergovernmental organizations.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-203-207

 


 

ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN THE GEOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO TECHNOGENIC IMPACT (FOR EXAMPLE, DASHOGUZ REGION)

Làrisa Agayeva, Aman Garahanov

 

Nature of technogenic impact depends on the nature of development of territory and the design features of structure. In accordance with this, type of construction, type of structure and technology of operation are selected as signs of typification. These signs determine the scale of changes in the geological environment (regional or local) and their nature (areal, point or linear). The greatest regional changes occur during reclamation measures that cause the processes of flooding and secondary salinization of lands, which everywhere leads to activation of subsidence process. Reservoirs and sections of large main water pipelines are associated with the flooding of large depressions in the relief and, as a result, formation of a vast zone of groundwater backwater and flooding, for example, Lake Sarykamysh, located in the north in the Dashoguz region.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-208-211

 


 

MINGECHEVIR DAM BREAK RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM  

Emil Gafarov, Aytan Ahmadova

 

The paper deals with results of the modeling of remote control system of physical stability of hydraulic-fill dam. Case study application has been made for Mingechevir dam on Kura river. This dam is highest in Europe that was constructed through sprinkling. The offered model includes aero-geodetic benchmarks maintained in the body of dam, floating water level measure station on reservoir and water level (water discharge) recorders on rivers Kura, Iori and Alazani. The remote system supplied with solar battery, digital measurement sensors with GSM/GPS connection with Dam Management Office.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-366-212-216

 


 

          

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Safety Research :

 

 

Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality:

 

 

Statistic, Probability and Uncertainty :